Non-tender watch, 2026 offseason

300 players on 40-man rosters are arbitration-eligible for 2027. Each must be tendered a contract by Nov 20, 2026, 8 PM ET, or become a free agent that night, with no waivers and no termination pay. A tendered player cannot be cut more than 20% from this year's salary, so the tender is a real decision: 41 of them carry a cut risk of 30% or more by the model, whose 90-day window from today runs through Dec 9, 2026 and was trained on past non-tenders and November outrights alike.

Sorted by the roster-aware model: for each player, the club's returning depth at his role next year minus departing free agents, ranked by projection, and where he lands in it (rank shown; hover for the ZiPS/Steamer reading). The two risk columns after it are the general model's: designated or outrighted, and released or non-tendered, within 90 days. Historically most arbitration-eligible cuts happen as November outrights rather than at the deadline itself, so read them together. The model learns from roster mechanics, history, this season's line and positional depth; it does not see projections or dollars. Those sit alongside as context: ZiPS projected WAR, this year's WAR, how he was acquired (a club that just traded for a player has historically cut him about half as often), and the same-position free agents his club is losing. Arbitration salary projections are added when FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors publish them in October.