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Cade Smith

RP · R/R · age 27.4 · CLE

XX-DOCTOBER OK

Roster status
ACTIVE

Service thru 2025
2+000

Service now / projected
3+000 / 3+000

Option years left (2026)
3

Assignments left this season
5 of 5

Contract (2027)
SALARY ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE

Acquired
Non-Drafted FA Jun'20

Outrighted / DFA'd before
0 / 0

Contract
1 yr, $824.6k (2026)

Next 90 days, by the model

Stays put
98%

Designated
<1%

Optioned
<1%

Traded
2%

Released or non-tendered
<1%

Pushing the cut risk around: this season's WAR (2.04) lowers it, last season's WAR (2.70) lowers it, this season's strikeout rate (0.35) lowers it.

Context the model does not weigh: ZiPS projects 1.4 WAR, 2.0 WAR this season; 13 RP on the 40-man.

Trained on every 40-man roster snapshot since 2011 and what happened in the following 90 days; it sees roster status, options, service, history and last season's line, not this season's performance or the club's intentions. How well it does.

Is there a job for him next year?

CLE returns 13 RP on the 40-man once nobody leaves; about 9 RP jobs survive a normal winter. By his own recent record he ranks 1st among the returners (3.7 WAR against a bar of 0.1), which the calibrated model turns into 100% kept through the tender deadline. Ranked by ZiPS and Steamer instead, which credit his longer track record, he is 1st (1.2 WAR, bar 0.1), worth 100% kept on the same model.

By recent record: returning RP	Proj. WAR
1. Cade Smith	3.7
2. Erik Sabrowski	1.8
3. Hunter Gaddis	1.4
4. Matt Festa	1.4
5. Shawn Armstrong	1.0
6. Daniel Espino	0.7
7. Colin Holderman	0.6
8. Slade Cecconi	0.6
9. Tim Herrinlast job	0.1
10. Franco Aleman	0.0
11. Andrew Walters	-0.0
12. Craig Yoho	-0.2

By ZiPS / Steamer: returning RP	Proj. WAR
1. Cade Smith	1.2
2. Slade Cecconi	1.1
3. Daniel Espino	0.6
4. Hunter Gaddis	0.5
5. Shawn Armstrong	0.4
6. Tim Herrin	0.4
7. Erik Sabrowski	0.2
8. Colin Holderman	0.1
9. Franco Alemanlast job	0.1
10. Craig Yoho	0.1
11. Connor Brogdon	0.1
12. Matt Festa	0.1

Departing free agents are excluded; players on club, mutual or player options are counted as returning. The kept probability is calibrated on every September since 2012 using the recent-record projection; the ZiPS/Steamer reading uses the same model with a different ranking, so treat it as a second opinion rather than a calibrated number. Salary enters once arbitration projections publish in October.

October: Post-season eligible

On the 40-man before noon ET Sep 1. He stays eligible as long as he remains on the 40-man or 60-day IL through the post-season; an outright after the cutoff would end automatic eligibility.

The post-season eligibility list is fixed at noon ET on September 1: everyone on the 40-man, the 60-day IL or the military list at that moment, who then stays there without interruption. Attachment 25 (Major League Rule 40)

What happens if the club…

option him to the minors: Yes, 3 option years left. 5 of the five optional assignments for 2026 remain. He has 0 option days this season; at 20 a 2026 option year is used and those days stop counting as service. Once down he must stay 15 days unless he replaces an injured or traded player. An option does not trigger his Article XX-D right; only an outright would.; Option years and the 20-day rule · Five optional assignments per season · Minimum stay on option
designate him for assignment (or put him on outright waivers): The club has 7 days to trade him, pass him through outright waivers, or release him; he is paid at the major-league rate and keeps accruing service in the meantime. On outright waivers any club can claim him for $50,000, worst record first, and the claiming club takes his contract (1 yr, $824.6k (2026)). Three-plus years of service give him the Article XX-D choice: elect free agency immediately (giving up the rest of his salary) or accept the assignment, keep getting paid, and elect free agency after the season unless he is added back to a 40-man first. Post-season: an outright after the September 1 cutoff ends his automatic eligibility. He could only return as an approved injury replacement, and only if he accepts the outright and stays on a minor-league reserve list in the organization without interruption; a release makes him ineligible for anyone this October.; Designated for assignment: 7 days · Outright waivers · Article XX-D: the right to walk
release him: Release waivers cost a claiming club $1 but the claimant assumes the whole contract, so expensive players clear. The club owes the full unpaid balance of this season's salary, offset by whatever another club pays him this year. A released player is not post-season eligible for any club this year.; Release waivers and termination pay · Which rate a split contract pays at release
trade himBLOCKED: Not now: players on major-league contracts cannot be traded after the Aug 3 deadline until the day after the World Series.; Trade deadline · 10-and-5 rights · June 15 no-trade for free-agent signees
non-tender him: At the tender deadline (Nov 20) the club can decline to offer a contract: no waivers, no termination pay, and he can be re-signed the same night. Tendering means arbitration, where he cannot be cut more than 20% from this year's salary.; Tender deadline · Arbitration: 3 to 6 years · Maximum salary cut

What the rules say about him

Option years and the 20-day rule
3 option years left entering 2026.
A season with fewer than 20 days on optional assignment does not count as an option year, and those days count as Major League service. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Article XIX(E) and XXI(B), p. 98 (the number itself is in Major League Rule 7(c))
Five optional assignments per season
Optioned 0 times this season that count toward the cap of 5: 5 left.
A player can be optioned at most five times in a season; a sixth trip requires outright waivers. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Article XIX(E), p. 98 (the number itself is in Major League Rule 7(c))
Article XX-D: the right to walk
Crossed 3 years of service this season: may elect free agency if outrighted.
A player with three or more years of service (or a Super Two), or any player being outrighted for the second time in his career, may elect free agency instead of accepting the outright. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Article XX(D)(1)-(2), (4), p. 110
Post-season roster eligibility
On the 40-man before noon ET Sep 1. He stays eligible as long as he remains on the 40-man or 60-day IL through the post-season; an outright after the cutoff would end automatic eligibility.
The post-season eligibility list is fixed at noon ET on September 1: everyone on the 40-man, the 60-day IL or the military list at that moment, who then stays there without interruption. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Attachment 25, p. 253 (the number itself is in Major League Rule 40)
Rule 5 clock
On a 40-man roster (would first be exposed after 2023 otherwise).

Transaction log

Jul 13, 2026	Status change	American League All-Stars activated RHP Cade Smith.
Nov 14, 2023	Contract selected	Cleveland Guardians selected the contract of RHP Cade Smith from Columbus Clippers.
Nov 14, 2023	Status change	Cleveland Guardians activated RHP Cade Smith.
Jun 18, 2020	Signed as free agent	Cleveland Indians signed free agent RHP Cade Smith to a minor league contract.

Service through 2025 per FanGraphs RosterResource; options and this-season service reconstructed from the MLB transaction log (reconstruction; FanGraphs shows 3). Rule 5 exposure deadline Nov 17, 2026.