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Michael Arroyo

2B/OF · R/R · age 21.9 · SEA

DRAFT-EXCLUDEDOCTOBER: SUB ONLY

Roster status
ACTIVE

Service thru 2025
0+000

Service now / projected
0+009 / 0+022

Option years left (2026)
3

Assignments left this season
5 of 5

Contract (2027)
PRE-ARBITRATION / AUTO-RENEWAL

Acquired
Amateur FA (COLM) Jan'22

Outrighted / DFA'd before
0 / 0

Contract
none listed

Next 90 days, by the model

Stays put
95%

Designated
<1%

Optioned
4%

Traded
1%

Released or non-tendered
<1%

Pushing the cut risk around: age (21.86) lowers it, years since debut (0.02) raises it, time with the club (8) raises it.

Context the model does not weigh: ZiPS projects 2.0 WAR, 0.3 WAR this season; 14 OF on the 40-man, of whom Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward are headed to free agency.

Trained on every 40-man roster snapshot since 2011 and what happened in the following 90 days; it sees roster status, options, service, history and last season's line, not this season's performance or the club's intentions. How well it does.

Is there a job for him next year?

SEA returns 14 IF on the 40-man once 1 free agent leaves; about 8 IF jobs survive a normal winter. By his own recent record he ranks 4th among the returners (1.2 WAR against a bar of 0.2), which the calibrated model turns into 98% kept through the tender deadline. Ranked by ZiPS and Steamer instead, which credit his longer track record, he is 6th (1.0 WAR, bar 0.8), worth 98% kept on the same model.

By recent record: returning IF	Proj. WAR
1. Brendan Donovan	2.8
2. Josh Naylor	1.8
3. Cole Young	1.3
4. Michael Arroyo	1.2
5. Luke Raley	1.0
6. Lazaro Montes	0.8
7. Ryan Bliss	0.2
8. Leonardo Rivaslast job	0.2
9. Colt Emerson	-0.1
10. Willie MacIver	-0.2
11. Will Wilson	-0.7
12. Weston Wilson	-0.8

By ZiPS / Steamer: returning IF	Proj. WAR
1. Brendan Donovan	3.1
2. Josh Naylor	2.7
3. Cole Young	1.8
4. Colt Emerson	1.6
5. Leonardo Rivas	1.4
6. Michael Arroyo	1.0
7. Willie MacIver	0.9
8. Luke Raleylast job	0.8
9. Ryan Bliss	0.8
10. Weston Wilson	0.4
11. Brock Rodden	0.3
12. Lazaro Montes	0.3

Departing free agents are excluded; players on club, mutual or player options are counted as returning. The kept probability is calibrated on every September since 2012 using the recent-record projection; the ZiPS/Steamer reading uses the same model with a different ranking, so treat it as a second opinion rather than a calibrated number. Salary enters once arbitration projections publish in October.

October: Injury replacement only

Added to the 40-man on Sep 6, after the Sep 1 noon cutoff, so he is not automatically eligible. He was in the organization before the cutoff, so he can be approved as a replacement for an injured eligible player.

The post-season eligibility list is fixed at noon ET on September 1: everyone on the 40-man, the 60-day IL or the military list at that moment, who then stays there without interruption. Attachment 25 (Major League Rule 40)

What happens if the club…

option him to the minorsBLOCKED: Draft-Excluded status blocks any option until 20 days before Opening Day 2027.; Draft-Excluded Player
designate him for assignment (or put him on outright waivers): The club has 7 days to trade him, pass him through outright waivers, or release him; he is paid at the major-league rate and keeps accruing service in the meantime. On outright waivers any club can claim him for $50,000, worst record first, and the claiming club takes his contract. If he clears, the club can outright him to the minors and he has no say; he stays under club control on a minor-league deal. He would then be Rule 5-eligible and would hold XX-D rights against any future outright.; Designated for assignment: 7 days · Outright waivers · Article XX-D: the right to walk
release him: Release waivers cost a claiming club $1 but the claimant assumes the whole contract, so expensive players clear. The club owes the full unpaid balance of this season's salary, offset by whatever another club pays him this year. A released player is not post-season eligible for any club this year.; Release waivers and termination pay · Which rate a split contract pays at release
trade himBLOCKED: Not now: players on major-league contracts cannot be traded after the Aug 3 deadline until the day after the World Series.; Trade deadline · 10-and-5 rights · June 15 no-trade for free-agent signees
renew him for next year: Pre-arbitration: the club sets his 2027 salary near the minimum ($780,000 floor) and he has no leverage beyond a non-tender.; Minimum salaries · Tender deadline

What the rules say about him

Option years and the 20-day rule
3 option years left entering 2026.
A season with fewer than 20 days on optional assignment does not count as an option year, and those days count as Major League service. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Article XIX(E) and XXI(B), p. 98 (the number itself is in Major League Rule 7(c))
Five optional assignments per season
Optioned 0 times this season that count toward the cap of 5: 5 left.
A player can be optioned at most five times in a season; a sixth trip requires outright waivers. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Article XIX(E), p. 98 (the number itself is in Major League Rule 7(c))
Draft-Excluded Player
Rule 5-eligible and selected to the 40-man on Sep 6: Draft-Excluded Player, cannot be optioned until 20 days before Opening Day 2027.
A Rule 5-eligible player with under three years of service added to the 40-man after August 15 cannot be optioned until 20 days before Opening Day. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Article XVIII(B), p. 93 (the number itself is in Major League Rule 6)
Post-season roster eligibility
Added to the 40-man on Sep 6, after the Sep 1 noon cutoff, so he is not automatically eligible. He was in the organization before the cutoff, so he can be approved as a replacement for an injured eligible player.
The post-season eligibility list is fixed at noon ET on September 1: everyone on the 40-man, the 60-day IL or the military list at that moment, who then stays there without interruption. 2022-2026 Basic Agreement, Attachment 25, p. 253 (the number itself is in Major League Rule 40)
Rule 5 clock
On a 40-man roster (would first be exposed after 2026 otherwise).

Transaction log

Sep 6, 2026	Contract selected	Seattle Mariners selected the contract of SS Michael Arroyo from Tacoma Rainiers.
Jan 15, 2022	Signed as free agent	Seattle Mariners signed free agent SS Michael Arroyo to a minor league contract.

Service through 2025 per FanGraphs RosterResource; options and this-season service reconstructed from the MLB transaction log (reconstruction; FanGraphs shows 3). Rule 5 exposure deadline Nov 17, 2026.