Aaron Judge

Next 90 days, by the model

Pushing the cut risk around: this season's WAR (1.94) lowers it, last season's WAR (10.04) lowers it, WAR two seasons ago (11.21) lowers it.

Context the model does not weigh: ZiPS projects 7.9 WAR, 1.9 WAR this season; 10 OF on the 40-man, of whom Amed Rosario, Trent Grisham are headed to free agency.

Trained on every 40-man roster snapshot since 2011 and what happened in the following 90 days; it sees roster status, options, service, history and last season's line, not this season's performance or the club's intentions. How well it does.

Is there a job for him next year?

NYY returns 4 OF on the 40-man once 1 free agent leaves; about 7 OF jobs survive a normal winter. By his own recent record he ranks 1st among the returners (6.8 WAR against a bar of 0.9), which the calibrated model turns into 100% kept through the tender deadline. Ranked by ZiPS and Steamer instead, which credit his longer track record, he is 1st (7.3 WAR, bar 1.1), worth 100% kept on the same model.

Departing free agents are excluded; players on club, mutual or player options are counted as returning. The kept probability is calibrated on every September since 2012 using the recent-record projection; the ZiPS/Steamer reading uses the same model with a different ranking, so treat it as a second opinion rather than a calibrated number. Salary enters once arbitration projections publish in October.

What happens if the club…

option him to the minorsBLOCKED

Not without his consent: with five years of service he can refuse the assignment or elect free agency instead. The club's only unilateral moves are to keep him, trade him, or release him.

Article XIX-A: five years, no forced assignment

designate him for assignment (or put him on outright waivers)

The club has 7 days to trade him, pass him through outright waivers, or release him; he is paid at the major-league rate and keeps accruing service in the meantime. On outright waivers any club can claim him for $50,000, worst record first, and the claiming club takes his contract (9 yr, $360M (2023-31)). If he clears, he cannot be outrighted without his consent: he can refuse and force a release with his contract intact, or elect free agency (forfeiting termination pay). Post-season: an outright after the September 1 cutoff ends his automatic eligibility. He could only return as an approved injury replacement, and only if he accepts the outright and stays on a minor-league reserve list in the organization without interruption; a release makes him ineligible for anyone this October. With real money left on the contract a claim is unlikely; the usual outcome is clearing waivers, then release, with the club paying the balance less what a new club pays him.

Designated for assignment: 7 days · Outright waivers · Article XIX-A: five years, no forced outright

release him

Release waivers cost a claiming club $1 but the claimant assumes the whole contract, so expensive players clear. The club owes the full unpaid balance of this season's salary, offset by whatever another club pays him this year. The guaranteed years remain owed in full. A released player is not post-season eligible for any club this year.

Release waivers and termination pay · Which rate a split contract pays at release

trade himBLOCKED

Not now: players on major-league contracts cannot be traded after the Aug 3 deadline until the day after the World Series.

Trade deadline · 10-and-5 rights · June 15 no-trade for free-agent signees

Let the season end

Under contract (9 yr, $360M (2023-31)): nothing to decide this winter. Moving him later means trading the contract or releasing him and paying the guaranteed years in full.

Release waivers and termination pay